India will reduce direct imports of Russian crude oil from the end of November 2025 following the latest US sanctions imposed on Rosneft and Lukoil effective November 21. The move is expected to significantly alter India’s oil import pattern in the coming months.
Major Refiners to Follow Sanction Rules
Several Indian refiners responsible for more than half of the nation’s Russian crude imports are preparing to comply with the new sanctions targeting Moscow’s top oil exporters. These refineries process the crude into fuels such as petrol and diesel. Analysts believe this compliance will lead to a temporary fall in Russian oil arrivals starting December.
Decline Expected in December, Gradual Recovery by 2026
Maritime intelligence firm Kpler reported that Russian crude shipments to India will see a steep drop in December 2025. However, a slow recovery is expected in early 2026 as intermediaries and alternative trade routes develop. Reliance Industries Ltd, one of India’s largest importers with long-term contracts with Rosneft, plans to stop receiving Russian oil. Two state-run refiners have also confirmed suspension of imports.
Key Refiners Suspend Russian Crude Imports
Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd—a joint venture between Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd and Mittal Energy—have both decided to halt future Russian oil purchases. Together with Reliance Industries, these companies made up over half of the 1.8 million barrels of Russian crude imported by India in the first half of 2025.
Some Imports to Continue Through Limited Channels
Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery, partially owned by Rosneft and already under European Union sanctions, is expected to continue processing Russian crude. According to Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst at Kpler, Russia was India’s largest oil supplier in October, followed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Before the sanctions, Russian exports to India averaged between 1.6 and 1.8 million barrels per day.
Complex Trade Routes Ahead
After October 21, refiners began cutting imports to avoid risks related to the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) regulations. Experts predict that Russian oil will not vanish from India’s market but will move through more complex and indirect logistics systems in the future.
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