India is likely to see a rise in Covid-19 infections building into a new — though smaller — virus wave that may peak in October, according to a mathematical model by researchers who accurately predicted the tapering of a brutal surge of cases earlier this year.
The country may see a worsening of its outbreak as soon as this month, with the next wave peaking in the best-case scenario with less than 100,000 infections a day, or nearly 150,000 in the worst scenario, according to estimates by researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at Indian Institute of Technology in Hyderabad and Kanpur respectively.
States with high Covid rates, such as Kerala and Maharashtra, could “skew the picture,” Vidyasagar told Bloomberg in an email.
The next wave is likely to be far smaller than the second wave that peaked at a record 400,000-plus daily cases on May 7 and declined sharply thereafter. But the forecast still underscores the need for India to accelerate its vaccination campaign, deploy surveillance methods to catch emerging hotspots and stay vigilant through genome sequencing given the potential for new variants to emerge.
The delta strain now causing renewed outbreaks across the world was first identified in India last October.
Stepping up public health efforts and avoiding past mistakes will be key if India wants to save lives and livelihoods when the next wave descends.
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