Monsoon revival unlikely before July 7

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has stated that the monsoon is unlikely to progress over the rest of northwest India till July 7. Monsoon rain over the country will also remain extremely subdued till then.

In statement IMD has informed the monsoon had weakened due to impact mid-latitude westerly winds that didn’t allow easterly winds to progress; unfavourable Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and absence of formation of the low-pressure system over North Bay of Bengal which helps monsoon progress and brings rain in its path.

The MJO currently lies in Phase 1 (equatorial eastern Africa) with an amplitude of more than 1. It is likely to propagate eastwards into Phase 2 (Western Equatorial Indian Ocean and the adjoining Arabian Sea) with amplitude close to 1 by July 2 and further into Phase 3 (Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean Bay of Bengal) from July 7. MJO is likely to gradually favour enhancement of convection and cross-equatorial flow over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) during Week 2 after July 7. MJO location and amplitude strongly modulate the intensity of tropical convection and features like low-pressure systems over the north Indian Ocean.

An official has quoted, “Model forecasts show that easterly winds from Bay of Bengal in lower tropospheric levels are not likely to be established over north-western plains of India before July 7. Accordingly, further advance of southwest monsoon into remaining parts of Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana and Punjab is not likely till July 7,”

IMD also warned that due to likely dry westerly or southwesterly winds from Pakistan to northwest India at lower levels, heatwave conditions are likely over some parts of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh during the next 2 days and over and West Madhya Pradesh during the next 24 hours.

The secretary of the ministry of earth sciences M Rajeevan has tweeted, “As predicted, monsoon enters into the break phase with little rains over the country and no signs of revival till July 7. Heavy rains could trigger floods over N-E and states like Bihar. Due to dry weather, temps go up over NW India including Delhi with temps >40 C,”