New Delhi | The long pending India US trade deal is expected to be finalised and is most likely to take shape in the first half of the year, according to Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the Eurasia Group. He also suggested that the recent increase in US tariffs on Indian goods may not emerge as a major risk for India in 2026, even though it remains a significant issue in 2025.
Ian Bremmer shared an optimistic outlook on the agreement with media and indicated that progress is firmly on track. He stated that while the tariff hike has drawn attention this year, its overall impact is unlikely to dominate India’s risk landscape in the following year.
Negotiations between India and the United States have been underway for several months, but the pace slowed after relations became strained in August last year. This followed Washington’s decision to impose a 50% tariff on certain Indian exports, citing India’s continued import of Russian oil. The move added complexity to the talks and affected momentum.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi last held discussions with former US President Donald Trump on December 11, shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India. Later in December, US Deputy Trade Representative Rick Switzer visited India, after which Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal confirmed that the discussions with the United States had reached an advanced stage.
Earlier, Donald Trump also commented on his relationship with Prime Minister Modi, noting that despite cordial ties, there were disagreements related to tariffs and oil imports. He acknowledged that India has significantly reduced its oil purchases from Russia, which may influence future trade decisions.
The lack of a clearly defined timeline and the evolving nature of negotiations have increased pressure on Indian exporters as the new financial year approaches. Key domestic export industries, including leather, chemicals, footwear, gems and jewellery, textiles, and shrimp, have faced severe challenges due to the 50% US tariff and are now looking toward the proposed trade deal for potential relief in the near term.
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